We are hiring for a Senior Program Associate to support (and potentially scale up) Open Philanthropy’s forecasting grantmaking and to advance our internal forecasting processes.
Open Phil has a longstanding interest in forecasting. Our ability to help others depends, in part, on our ability to accurately predict changes in the world. We try to quantify and evaluate our internal predictions and to learn from our successes and failures. (See this 2022 report for an analysis of our performance-to-date.) We also believe that accurate forecasting is a broadly useful service to the world, offering tools for effective planning to policymakers, our grantees, and others. To that end, we support a variety of forecasting platforms and forecasting researchers. (See, for instance, our 2022 grant to Metaculus for an example of this kind of grant.) We hope that the new Senior Program Associate will help us grow this important area.
Please apply by 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on March 5, 2022 to be considered.
About the Role
The Senior Program Associate would be charged with three functions:
- Make grants to support the forecasting community. We think a robust forecasting community is good for the world because it could improve high-level decision making. We expect Open Phil and the broader EA community to benefit from a robust forecasting community. However, much of the value of supporting the forecasting community might run through other actors, e.g. by reducing the frequency of intelligence and decision-making failures by national security professionals. (For an example of this theory of change, see our 2021 support for the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security at the University of Maryland.) We’re not sure how many promising grant opportunities exist in this field, but we would expect a successful hire to start with a budget of at least $5M/year and possibly substantially more depending on the quality of grant opportunities found.
- Support staff in commissioning external forecasts on specific questions of interest to Open Phil. Much of our grantmaking and research could be improved with better predictions about the future. We are especially interested in commissioning forecasts on questions relevant to the long-run allocation of resources between Global Health & Wellbeing and Longtermism. For instance, we might task the Senior Program Associate with commissioning independent forecasts on the degree to which scientific and technological advancement would resist automation or require prolonged real-world experimentation that would handicap rapid AI progress.
- Manage Open Phil’s internal forecasting work. Open Phil’s researchers and program officers generate many predictions in the process of their research and grantmaking. It’s currently unclear how useful those predictions are. We expect the Senior Program Associate to bring thoughts on better ways to structure internal forecasting, as well as whether and how to use forecasting results to improve organizational performance.
Who might be a good fit
You might be a great fit for this work if you:
- Are familiar with the current landscape of forecasting organizations and have creative ideas for supporting and expanding that landscape
- Have a strong personal track record in forecasting, e.g. on prediction platforms such as Good Judgment Open, Metaculus, Hypermind, or INFER
- Understand the science of forecasting, including its potential and limitations
- Are interested in forecasting that could inform our grantmaking aimed at mitigating catastrophic and existential risks
- Exhibit good epistemic judgment, including a willingness to update on new information and a commitment to reasoning transparency
- Have sufficient interpersonal skills to manage external relationships and represent Open Phil in the forecasting community
- Are independent, organized, and self-motivated
The ideal candidate for this position will possess many of the skills and experiences described above. However, there is no such thing as a “perfect” candidate. If you are on the fence about applying because you are unsure whether you are qualified, we would strongly encourage you to apply.
Role details & benefits
- Compensation: The baseline compensation for this role is $134,526.31, which would be distributed as a base salary of $116,979.40 and an unconditional 401(k) grant of $17,546.91 for U.S. hires.
- These compensation figures assume a remote location; there would be geographic adjustments upwards for candidates based in the San Francisco Bay Area or Washington, D.C.
- All compensation will be distributed in the form of take-home salary for internationally-based hires.
- Time zones and location: You can work from anywhere. We are happy to consider sponsoring U.S. work authorization. However, we don’t control who is and isn’t eligible for a visa and can’t guarantee visa approval.
- Start date: We’d like a candidate to start as soon as possible after receiving an offer — definitely no later than July 2023, though ideally sooner.
- Benefits: Our benefits package includes:
- Excellent health insurance (we cover 100% of premiums within the US for you and any dependents)
- Dental, vision and life insurance for you and your family
- Four weeks of PTO recommended per year
- Four months of fully paid family leave
- A generous and flexible expense policy — we encourage staff to expense the ergonomic equipment, software and other services that they need to stay healthy and productive
- Support for remote work — we’ll cover a remote workspace outside your home if you need one, or connect you with an Open Phil coworking hub in your city
- We can’t always provide every benefit we offer US staff to international hires, but we’re working on it (and will usually provide cash equivalents of any benefits we can’t offer in your country)
We aim to employ people with many different experiences, perspectives and backgrounds who share our passion for accomplishing as much good as we can. We are committed to creating an environment where all employees have the opportunity to succeed, and we do not discriminate based on race, religion, color, national origin, gender, sexual orientation, or any other legally protected status.
If you need assistance or an accommodation due to a disability, or have any other questions about applying, please contact jobs@openphilanthropy.org.
Please apply by 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time on March 5, 2022 to be considered.